时代中国控股(1233.HK)旧改进入收获期助力深耕大湾区维持“买入”评级目标价17.0港元
机构：中泰国际
评级：买入
目标价：17.0港元
业绩优于预期，财务维持稳健
19年上半年股东应占核心净利润同比增43.8%至17.0亿人民币，高于市场预期。增长的主要原因有：1）收入同比增52.2%至159.4亿人民币，城市更新业务收入由去年同期的0增至6.4亿；2）毛利率由去年同期的28.2%上升至32.5%，其中城市更新业务毛利率高达84.9%。应占核心净利润率由去年同期的11.3%下降至10.7%，主要因素有：
1）所得税开支同比增长84.1%；
2）SG&A占收入的比重由去年同期的7.6%略微上升至7.9%；
3）非控股权益显著增加。
公司维持了健康稳健的财务负债表，截止到19年中：净负债率由18年底的62.6%上升至70.8%，现金对短债比在2.57x；公司于19年3月获S&P提升信贷评级至“BB-”，19年5月获联合信用及中诚信提升信用评级至“AAA”。
销售稳步推进，旧改加速转化
公司19年上半年合约销售同比增长20.0%至312.3亿人民币，销售面积同比增36.9%至206.4万平方米，均价15,130.8元/平方米；上半年推货600亿人民币，去化率超50%；下半年货值700亿，另有部分19年新增项目可开始销售，管理层对实现全年750亿的销售目标有信心。19年上半年公司新增21幅地块，总建筑面积517.1万平方米，总土地成本187.6亿人民币，平均地价3,628元/平方米（占同期销售均价的24%）；其中3幅土地为公司旧改储备转化，总建面140.8万平方米；加上公司完成一级开发后获利退出的广州金融城旧厂项目，上半年旧改转化建筑面积达150.7万平方米，相对18年全年的81.0万平方米显著提升。近期广东省三旧改造政策环境不断改善，我们认为公司可以保持目前积极的旧改转化节奏，有望在19-21年转化超1,000万平方米（建筑面积）的旧改项目。
调整盈利预测，重申17.0港元的目标价，维持买入评级
调整交付节奏以及城市更新业务的毛利率假设，我们分别提升19-21年应占核心净利润预测5.5%、0.5%、1.5%；考虑4月份配股的摊薄因素，19-21年EPS的变动分别为+3.1%、-2.5%、-1.5%。公司目前的股价对应4.2倍的19年市盈率，7.2%的19年股息率。公司进一步证明了其操盘大湾区旧改的能力；我们相信以大湾区旧改为抓手，公司可以积极扩充土储，实现规模突围。我们重申17.00港元的目标价，对应5.6倍的19年PE，目标价对应现价有26.9%的潜在升幅。
风险提示：（一）房地产政策大幅收紧；（二）人民币汇率波动
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
